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Showing posts with label New Hampshire primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Hampshire primary. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

No Surprises in New Hampshire

Results for New Hampshire Republican Primary, January 10th, 2012

Mitt Romney 39.4%
Ron Paul 22.8%
Jon Huntsman 16.8%
Newt Gingrich 9.4%
Rick Santorum 9.3%
Rick Perry 1.2%

Romney did slightly worse than expected but remains the front runner even under attacks from fellow republicans (read Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry). These attacks on Romney's alleged "Corporate Raider" tactics coming from career politicans are out of place and if continued will hurt the overall Republican effort against Obama in the fall.

Ron Paul did slightly better than expected. The exposure of Ron Paul's newsletters, which at best portray him as a bad manager, and at worst as a racist, did not seem to affect support for Paul much. Actually no surprise there as Paul supporters seem to forgive any Paul misstep on the way.

Santorum a point below poll averages. This disappointed me as I think Santorum has a lot to bring to the table with his economic plan. He needs to get that in front of people and add to his reputation or perception that he is only a family values candidate, although he does articulate an exceptional grasp of foreign policy and the threats facing this Country, as opposed to the ostrich Ron Paul who foreign policy is to the left of Donald Duck.

Huntsman much better than predicted on the pre-primary poll average probably because he ignored Iowa in order to campaign in New Hampshire also putting money into New Hampshire, unlike Rick Santorum for instance.

Gingrich was projected to garner about 8% of the votes and he came in at a little over 9%, so it's a wash for him and onto South Carolina and the conservative South where he has the best chance of making up the room between him and Romney.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Okay back to the 2012 Republican Presidential race.

Coming out of Iowa, where incidentally it wasn't just Republicans voting,... .....Democrats were allowed to vote for their "favorite" Republican candidate as well,.....we see that Gingrich has fallen substantially; Mitt can't seem to get over the 25% percentile;.......Santorum and his low cost, boot leather campaign has
garnered alot of support; Perry stayed abut the same as he has been in the past month;.....and Bachmann has fallen quite a bit. Who did we forget? Oh yeah, Ron Paul,...who domestic platforms is based solidly on Constitutional principles, his foreign policy idiocy has really established himself as a kook,...add in the newsletter with the really outlandish views on race, then you have a bigoted kook.

What happens in New Hampshire really only plays to people's perceptions and affects monetary support from backers/potential backers. But after all, perceptions are real and the winners (and losers) of New Hampshire will also serve to increase/decrease support for candidates in South Carolina. You can probably count on New Hampshire being the stopping point of Bachmann's campaign.  

Average polls from New Hampshire:
Romney 42%
Paul 20%
Santorum 11%
Huntsman 9%
Gingrich 8%

Then onto South Carolina. With the addition of South Carolina, we start to see a more diverse smattering of Republican groups adding their opinions to the fray. But one small state in the bread basket,...one small state in the liberal NE and South Carolina do not a Nation's view make. But after South Carolina the race should be down to Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and unfortunately Paul.

Perry may stay in, but if he does less well in South Carolina than he hopes,...he'll be out. Romney and Paul (again unfortunately) will be in for several more states as they have national organizations from their previous runs as the big office. Gingrich? I think he'll be in for a few more states, but let's all hope Rick Santorum picks up the support necessary to make a run at least deep into the primary season as he influences the constitutional aspects, foreign policy and traditional American values quite heavily.

Average polls from South Carolina (however will be affected by the NH results): Hampshire:
Romney 34%
Santorum 22%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 11%
Perry 5%

And here's a clue to the liberal media who are bashing the Conservatives for having so many choices with support spread throughout all candidates,.....We'll match our slat of primary candidates against any the Democratic party has brought up since the 1900's.  The last Democrat primary saw Obama (and we all know what a loser he is), beating Hillary and that lawyer John Edwards (with the $500 haircuts) who is now facing prison.  Nobody could call this slat a good selection with a straight face.

I'd be happy with Newt, Santorum, Romney, Perry, Bachmann even Hunstman over Obama or any new candidate the Dem's would put up to run. Hell, I would even bet for Ron Paul over Obama.

As far as how much the polls mean,......the night before the Iowa caucus results, the polls had Paul tied or slightly leading Romney and we all now how turned out.