South Carolina - What Can We Expect?

As you can expect, there is a wide variance between polls on the Republican candidates going into the
South Carolina primary.

The latest blended poll numbers has it like this:

Mitt Romney                            29%

Newt Gingrich                          23%

Ron Paul (Mr Potatoe Head)  17%

Rick Santorum                         12%

Rick Perry                                 7 %

Jon Huntsman                           4 %

Well, this is what I think we can expect:

Romney and Santorum will do better than the latest polling data. Romney on the strength of his front runner status (and ad money) and Santorum because he picked up the endorsement of evangelicals in a state where 1 in 2 voters believe faith is very important in character, and character very important for their political
leaders to have.

Gingrich will do slightly worse, as well as Paul. Leaving Perry to pickup a few points and Huntsman to get about what he deserves,...around 3%.

I expect the finishers to be Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Perry then Huntsman. Perry could surprise us on the strength of his last couple of interviews ashe came off bashing Romney for his Bain experience and generally hasn't said anything outrageous. Anyway, look for Santorum to place second and continue on to Florida, where the Sunshine State probably won't be seeing anymore of Huntsman.

If Gingrich and Perry both get out of the race, look for the vast majority of their support to go to Santorum - that would make the race interesting giving some hope for a non-Romney candidate.

No Surprises in New Hampshire

Results for New Hampshire Republican Primary, January 10th, 2012

Mitt Romney 39.4%
Ron Paul 22.8%
Jon Huntsman 16.8%
Newt Gingrich 9.4%
Rick Santorum 9.3%
Rick Perry 1.2%

Romney did slightly worse than expected but remains the front runner even under attacks from fellow republicans (read Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry). These attacks on Romney's alleged "Corporate Raider" tactics coming from career politicans are out of place and if continued will hurt the overall Republican effort against Obama in the fall.

Ron Paul did slightly better than expected. The exposure of Ron Paul's newsletters, which at best portray him as a bad manager, and at worst as a racist, did not seem to affect support for Paul much. Actually no surprise there as Paul supporters seem to forgive any Paul misstep on the way.

Santorum a point below poll averages. This disappointed me as I think Santorum has a lot to bring to the table with his economic plan. He needs to get that in front of people and add to his reputation or perception that he is only a family values candidate, although he does articulate an exceptional grasp of foreign policy and the threats facing this Country, as opposed to the ostrich Ron Paul who foreign policy is to the left of Donald Duck.

Huntsman much better than predicted on the pre-primary poll average probably because he ignored Iowa in order to campaign in New Hampshire also putting money into New Hampshire, unlike Rick Santorum for instance.

Gingrich was projected to garner about 8% of the votes and he came in at a little over 9%, so it's a wash for him and onto South Carolina and the conservative South where he has the best chance of making up the room between him and Romney.