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Sunday, January 15, 2012

South Carolina - What Can We Expect?

As you can expect, there is a wide variance between polls on the Republican candidates going into the
South Carolina primary.

The latest blended poll numbers has it like this:

Mitt Romney                            29%

Newt Gingrich                          23%

Ron Paul (Mr Potatoe Head)  17%

Rick Santorum                         12%

Rick Perry                                 7 %

Jon Huntsman                           4 %

Well, this is what I think we can expect:

Romney and Santorum will do better than the latest polling data. Romney on the strength of his front runner status (and ad money) and Santorum because he picked up the endorsement of evangelicals in a state where 1 in 2 voters believe faith is very important in character, and character very important for their political
leaders to have.

Gingrich will do slightly worse, as well as Paul. Leaving Perry to pickup a few points and Huntsman to get about what he deserves,...around 3%.

I expect the finishers to be Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Perry then Huntsman. Perry could surprise us on the strength of his last couple of interviews ashe came off bashing Romney for his Bain experience and generally hasn't said anything outrageous. Anyway, look for Santorum to place second and continue on to Florida, where the Sunshine State probably won't be seeing anymore of Huntsman.

If Gingrich and Perry both get out of the race, look for the vast majority of their support to go to Santorum - that would make the race interesting giving some hope for a non-Romney candidate.

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