From Comes From South Carolina

Nobody can saw they weren't suprised by New Gingrich's big victory in Saturday's South Carolina Republican primary. As it turned out Newt had almost a 14% margin over everyone's front runner Mitt Romney. Rick Santorum decivisely came in third over Ron Paul. The final vote percentages:

Newt Gingrich
40.4%

Mitt Romney
27.9%

Rick Santorum
17.0%

Ron Paul
13.0%

Herman Cain
1.1%

So what does this mean in the grand scheme of selecting a Republican to run against President Obama?

Well, a couple facts are:

After three primaries, we have three different winners.

South Carolina was unique because Democrats could, like Iowa, vote for Republicans producing mixed  results.

And again after three primaries, only 2% of the national delegates have been selected. Hardly a reason to declare a winner. It will come down to money. Who has the money to stay in. Romney certainly,...maybe Gingrich,...probably not Santorum,.....and who knows about Paul, surely he knows he is not a viable candidate and only remains in the race either for his ego or to influence the debate and party planks. Which is actually a good thing with his doomsday talk on the economy. Here's a hint,...it really is doomsday, hence the need to change out the Senate and the Executive Office with new employees.

Heading into the Florida primary, where Romney was previously favored, the race is still wide open. There will be calls for Santorum to get out of the race and throw his weight behind Newt, but I don't think he is ready to do that, nor will he do it, just yet anyway.

Another thing that came as a result of Romney's defeat was the issue of his tax returns becoming if not just a distraction, then a cause for voters to back Newt or Santorum. Romney has realized this,..has called it a mistake not to release before now, and will work to get his tax records out to the public. The public should not let tax rates, tax shelters or anything legal in Romeny's tax records influence them one way or another. We have too many pressing issues before us than to hold success and wealth against Romney. Anyone remember Obama's sweet heart real estate deal from Rezco?

South Carolina - What Can We Expect?

As you can expect, there is a wide variance between polls on the Republican candidates going into the
South Carolina primary.

The latest blended poll numbers has it like this:

Mitt Romney                            29%

Newt Gingrich                          23%

Ron Paul (Mr Potatoe Head)  17%

Rick Santorum                         12%

Rick Perry                                 7 %

Jon Huntsman                           4 %

Well, this is what I think we can expect:

Romney and Santorum will do better than the latest polling data. Romney on the strength of his front runner status (and ad money) and Santorum because he picked up the endorsement of evangelicals in a state where 1 in 2 voters believe faith is very important in character, and character very important for their political
leaders to have.

Gingrich will do slightly worse, as well as Paul. Leaving Perry to pickup a few points and Huntsman to get about what he deserves,...around 3%.

I expect the finishers to be Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Perry then Huntsman. Perry could surprise us on the strength of his last couple of interviews ashe came off bashing Romney for his Bain experience and generally hasn't said anything outrageous. Anyway, look for Santorum to place second and continue on to Florida, where the Sunshine State probably won't be seeing anymore of Huntsman.

If Gingrich and Perry both get out of the race, look for the vast majority of their support to go to Santorum - that would make the race interesting giving some hope for a non-Romney candidate.

No Surprises in New Hampshire

Results for New Hampshire Republican Primary, January 10th, 2012

Mitt Romney 39.4%
Ron Paul 22.8%
Jon Huntsman 16.8%
Newt Gingrich 9.4%
Rick Santorum 9.3%
Rick Perry 1.2%

Romney did slightly worse than expected but remains the front runner even under attacks from fellow republicans (read Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry). These attacks on Romney's alleged "Corporate Raider" tactics coming from career politicans are out of place and if continued will hurt the overall Republican effort against Obama in the fall.

Ron Paul did slightly better than expected. The exposure of Ron Paul's newsletters, which at best portray him as a bad manager, and at worst as a racist, did not seem to affect support for Paul much. Actually no surprise there as Paul supporters seem to forgive any Paul misstep on the way.

Santorum a point below poll averages. This disappointed me as I think Santorum has a lot to bring to the table with his economic plan. He needs to get that in front of people and add to his reputation or perception that he is only a family values candidate, although he does articulate an exceptional grasp of foreign policy and the threats facing this Country, as opposed to the ostrich Ron Paul who foreign policy is to the left of Donald Duck.

Huntsman much better than predicted on the pre-primary poll average probably because he ignored Iowa in order to campaign in New Hampshire also putting money into New Hampshire, unlike Rick Santorum for instance.

Gingrich was projected to garner about 8% of the votes and he came in at a little over 9%, so it's a wash for him and onto South Carolina and the conservative South where he has the best chance of making up the room between him and Romney.