Notice: This website may or may not use or set cookies used by Google Ad-sense or other third party companies. If you do not wish to have cookies downloaded to your computer, please disable cookie use in your browser. Thank You.


Sunday, February 19, 2012

The Real Unemployment Rate

If you believe the unemployment rate is 8.3% then you have been fooled, says the latest article by Forbes.

Forbes says the unemployment rate is really 11%. Here is how they come to that conclusion:

* In January 2009, labor force participation rate was 65.7%.
* It was still 65.7% in June 2009 when they said the recession ended.
* The latest rate is 63.7% = 5 million Americans no longer counted.
* If those 5 million are counted, we have 11% unemployment.
* If the January 2012 report had the same participation rate as December 2011, the unemployment rate would have risen to 8.7%.

The time has come to begin to raise questions about the precipitous decline in the labor force assumed by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Are the career bureaucrats there partial to President Obama, and favorable towards promoting his political chances for reelection? Or has the Obama Administration placed someone in a leadership slot over at the BLS or the unemployment statistics branch that is imposing this assumed sharp decline? Because of the oddness of this record setting decline, coinciding with President Obama’s ascension to office, these questions bear further investigation.

Here is the unemployment rate by demographic:

* Blacks: 13.6%
* Hispanics: 10.5%
* Teenagers: 23.2%
* Black Teenagers: 40%

To grade Obama, it is best to see how this "recovery" compares to others.

* Average length of a recession: 10 months, we are now at 50 months.
* Obama boasts about 250,000 jobs created. Reagan routinely created 1 million jobs.
* Can't blame Bush because history shows the steeper the recession, the stronger the recovery.
* After 2.5 years: Reagan created 8 million jobs and unemployment dropped 3.6%

Again, that website is here.

No comments:

Post a Comment